August was a slow month for home sales (closings) in Rumson. It was the third month in a row in which 2012 sales lagged behind those in 2011:
Jun Jul Aug
2011 12 16 19 2012 10 9 8
In addition, both the average and median sales prices were lower in all 3 months this year. As a result, the year-to-date figures for Rumson have taken a negative turn as well. You’ve heard me talk about the real estate absorption rate in the past, and why REALTORS® feel this is such an important indicator.
At the end of both June and July, the trailing 12 month absorption rate for Rumson homes was better (i.e., lower) in 2012 than it had been in 2011.
Unfortunately, this was not the case at the end of August, when the combination of fewer home sales and more homes on the market resulted in a trailing 12 month absorption rate of 9.8 months, compared to 8.8 months at the end of August, 2011.
Has the 2012 Rumson real estate market lost its steam?
It sure looks like it at this point. If I’m going to be your trusted real estate advisor I’ve got to give you the bad news as well as the good, and right now although the news really isn’t bad, it certainly is disappointing considering the high hopes we had earlier in the year.
What happened? Although it’s hard to identify a single primary factor, the slowdown is probably due to the ongoing uncertainty about the stock market, the Euro, the presidential election, the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts, etc.
When people become anxious they tend to avoid risks; and, many people may perceive the risk of buying or selling a home in Rumson to be too high right now.
Here’s the overall monthly chart for 8 months year-to-date:
Rumson Home Sales, January - August (8 Months Year To Date)
10% fewer homes sold this year.
27% more homes on market.
Months' Supply (Absorption Rate)
Supply/demand getting weaker.
Average Sale $ (Value)
22% lower average sales price.
Median Sale $ (Value)
Similar median sales price.
If you’d like to discuss any of this information in more detail, please give me a call or send me an email. Thanks!
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
(732) 239-0739 cell (732) 530-6686 office