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Rumson Home Sales Lag from 2011

Has the wind come out of the sails of the Rumson real estate market? Take a look at the sales numbers and see if you agree that we're luffing.

 

August was a slow month for home sales (closings) in Rumson. It was the third month in a row in which 2012 sales lagged behind those in 2011:


Jun Jul Aug



2011 12 16 19 2012 10 9 8

In addition, both the average and median sales prices were lower in all 3 months this year. As a result, the year-to-date figures for Rumson have taken a negative turn as well. You’ve heard me talk about the real estate absorption rate in the past, and why REALTORS® feel this is such an important indicator.

At the end of both June and July, the trailing 12 month absorption rate for Rumson homes was better (i.e., lower) in 2012 than it had been in 2011.

Unfortunately, this was not the case at the end of August, when the combination of fewer home sales and more homes on the market resulted in a trailing 12 month absorption rate of 9.8 months, compared to 8.8 months at the end of August, 2011.

Has the 2012 Rumson real estate market lost its steam?

It sure looks like it at this point. If I’m going to be your trusted real estate advisor I’ve got to give you the bad news as well as the good, and right now although the news really isn’t bad, it certainly is disappointing considering the high hopes we had earlier in the year.

What happened? Although it’s hard to identify a single primary factor, the slowdown is probably due to the ongoing uncertainty about the stock market, the Euro, the presidential election, the potential expiration of the Bush tax cuts, etc.

When people become anxious they tend to avoid risks; and, many people may perceive the risk of buying or selling a home in Rumson to be too high right now.

Here’s the overall monthly chart for 8 months year-to-date:

Rumson Home Sales, January - August (8 Months Year To Date)






      2011

     2012

        Comment





Sales (Demand)

      77

      69

10% fewer homes sold this year.





Listings (Supply)

      68

      86

27% more homes on market.





Months' Supply (Absorption Rate)

     8.8

     9.8

Supply/demand getting weaker.





Average Sale $ (Value)

$1,584,035

$1,241,447

22% lower average sales price.





Median Sale $ (Value)

$1,200,000

$1,195,000

Similar median sales price.

 

If you’d like to discuss any of this information in more detail, please give me a call or send me an email. Thanks!

Leonard “Len” Dunikoski

REALTOR Associate

Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office

8 West River Road

Rumson, NJ 07760

 

(732) 239-0739 cell     (732) 530-6686 office

 

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

MaxineJ September 04, 2012 at 10:22 PM
And that's a bad thing?

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