How’s the (Real Estate) Market in Rumson and Fair Haven (Part 2)?

Last week we looked at the 4 key objective, measurable real estate indicators and compared the annual statistics (2011 vs. 2010) for Rumson and Fair Haven. In the past we’ve also drilled down and looked at 2011 single-family home sales by number of bedrooms, waterfront vs. non-waterfront, etc. (to review those posts, click on my name and look through the listings until you find the ones you want).

This week we’re going to see what the 4 key real estate indicators looked like at the end of the first quarter of 2012. Just as a review, those 4 indicators are:

1. Sales Activity (Demand) - How many properties sold in the 2012 quarter compared to the same quarter in 2011). If sales are increasing, prices are likely to increase as well; if sales are declining, prices may continue to decline.

2. Listing Activity (Supply) - The number of homes for sale in your area. If the number is increasing using the same year-over-year comparison as above, prices are likely to drop to absorb the additional inventory; if the inventory is dropping, it may not be long before prices increase.

3. Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale (Absorption Rate) – A calculation of the number of months it would take to sell the current supply of homes if home sales continue at the present rate. A “normal market” is usually 5 - 7 months for average priced homes, and tends to increase as you move into the higher price ranges. We’ve been in a “buyer’s market” (greater than 7 months) for the past few years. If the supply is trending back to the 5 -7 months average, home prices may be increasing.

4. Average or Median Sales Price (Value) - The prices of homes sold last year/quarter compared with the previous year/quarter. If prices have dropped, they may continue to drop in the future. If prices have stabilized or have started to increase, an increase in the future may be at hand.

Here are the data for the first quarter:

  Town             Year     Sales    Active Listings   Months’ Supply         Average Price  Median Price

Rumson           2012    24                    74        10.3 months             $1,132,634      $1,131,667

                        2011    13                    65        16.3 months              $1,318,583      $1,165,000

Fair Haven       2012    12                   52        15.2 months                $   611,055     $   623,583

                        2011    16                    33         7.0 months                 $   562,672      $   547,167

Monmouth       2012    822             3,755        14.0 months                $   443,881      $   345,000

County             2011    729             3,411        13.7 months                $   438,784      $   359,000     

Positive signals are indicated in bold font and negative signals are indicated in italic font; if neither bold font nor italic font was used, the numbers were too close to be statistically significant.

 For Monmouth County as a whole, there were both more sales (positive) and more listings (negative), with little change in the other 3 indicators. Rumson and Fair Haven are small towns, and I always hesitate to come to any conclusions if we’re talking about less than 20 sales. Therefore I don’t put a whole lot of faith in the Rumson or Fair Haven indicators thus far this year, and the indicators are mixed anyway. I’ll keep you up to date every month as more homes are sold and the year-to-date data grow.