For the fourth month in a row, fewer Rumson homes sold this year than they did during the same monthly period last year.
The year-to-date sales, which had been down 10 percent at the end of August, are now down by 16 percent, and there now are 20 percent more homes listed for sale than there were a year ago.
When you put together declining demand and increased supply you get a markedly higher real estate absorption rate (a calculation of the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes if they continue to sell at the present rate).
Here are the numbers:Rumson Home Sales, January - September (9 Months Year To Date)
2011 2012 Comment
Sales (Demand) 89 75 16% fewer homes sold this year.
Listings (Supply) 70 84 20% more homes on market.
Months' Supply (Absorption Rate) 8.5 10.4 Demand vs. supply getting weaker.
Average Sale $ (Value) $1,512,203 $1,235,231 18% lower average sales price.
Median Sale $ (Value) $1,140,000 $1,200,000 5% higher median sales price.
Declining sales, increasing inventory and an increasing absorption rate all predict lower sales prices in the future, but so far prices have remained stable. The median home price is actually 5 percent higher than it was a year ago. The median is the point at which 50 percent of the homes sold for more money and 50 percent sold for less.
If Rumson home prices do decline in the fourth quarter, it may be welcome news for folks looking to buy, but not very good news for those who want to sell.
If you're thinking of putting your home on the market, pay close attention to what's happening month-to-month, so you can make an informed decision on whether to list your home now or wait to list it at some time in the future.
Some real estate gurus are predicting a market recovery in 2013, while others see very little change; a handful of prognosticators are predicting lower prices next year.
If you must sell your home before the end of the year, make sure you price it based on the market.
Look at recent sales of comparable homes (number of bedrooms and baths; age and condition of house; year of most recent kitchen/bath renovation; size of property; etc) to determine a ballpark price range.
I'd be glad to prepare a list of “comps” for you- please give me a call. Remember, your home isn’t worth what you think it “ought” to be worth, but what current home buyers are willing to pay.
You want to get the highest price. They want to pay the lowest price. Successful negotiation should reach a “win-win” closing price where both buyer and seller feel they’ve been successful, even if they didn’t get everything they wanted.
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
(732) 239-0739 (cell) (732) 530-6686 (office)