September Scoop on FH Real Estate Market
At the end of eight months, Fair Haven single-family home sales volume is up by 13 percent, and the median selling price is about the same as it was a year ago.
It’s surprising that home prices aren’t increasing, since the combination of more sales, fewer homes on the market, and a shorter real estate absorption rate normally predict higher selling prices.
Here are the numbers in tabular form:
|
Fair Haven Home Sales, January - August 2012 (eight months, year- to-date) |
|||
|
2011 |
2012 |
Comment |
|
|
Sales (demand) |
56 |
63 |
13 percent more sales |
|
Listings (supply) |
48 |
39 |
19 percent fewer listings. |
|
Months' Supply (absorption rate) |
6.8 |
6.4 |
Still a "normal market" (5-7 months) |
|
Average Sale $ (value) |
$723,339 |
$689,626 |
5 percent lower average sales price |
|
Median Sale $ (value) |
$665,750 |
$662,000 |
1% lower median sales price. |
As I’ve explained in previous posts, using the median sales price is better than using the average sales price as an indicator of the real estate market.
The median is the point at which 50 percent sold for more and 50 percent sold for less, whereas the simple arithmetic average can be skewed by one or two outliers.
Fair Haven home prices have remained stable for the past three years, with an eight month year-to-date median sales prices of $660,000 in 2010, $665,750 in 2011 and $662,000 this year.
You may view this price stability as either being a good or bad thing. On one hand, Fair Haven homes have retained their value, and Fair Haven home prices are still significantly lower than they are in Rumson.
On the other hand, if you bought your home three years ago, you haven’t seen any appreciation on its value.
Let’s put the past three years in perspective. If we look back 10 years (to 2002), the eight month year-to-date median home price in Fair Haven was $400,000.
Had you bought a home at that time, you’d have a lot more equity in your property. What will the median home price be 10 years from now? No one can say for sure, but historically real estate has increased in value between 3 and 5 percent per year.
Isn’t it possible that we may “make up” the 9 to 15 percent increase that historically would have happened in three years? No one knows for sure, and we might have three more years of stable prices.
However, with the massive increases in the money supply over the last four years, my personal prediction is that renewed inflation will force home prices higher, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.
Len
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski
REALTOR Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760
(732) 239-0739 cell (732) 530-6686 office
SmallTownAntics
9:42 am on Saturday, September 8, 2012
Len, it would be interesting for you to compare this year's numbers with 2005/2006 or show the trend over the years. I think alot of people have just given up even trying to sell there home in this poor economy. And many people CAN'T even try, because they're under water, and would have to take a huge loss.
SmallTownAntics
9:55 am on Saturday, September 8, 2012
Len, here's the 2005 data:
81 homes sold in the Jan-Aug period...so FH is still way down.
Avg price was $748K, so versus your $689K number now, that's pretty dismal, too.
I know realtors love to show things are looking up!! But it seems obvious that the only reason why sales likely ticked up a tad is because prices are continuing to trend DOWN. Happy buyers, sad sellers.
Len Dunikoski, GRI
6:05 pm on Saturday, September 8, 2012
Thanks for your comments. There's a very limited amount of space allotted to replying to a comment so I'll put my reply in a "Part 2" post. There may be Realtors who try to put a positive spin on everything but I'm not one of them- take a look at my recent post about Oceanport home prices in the Little Silver-Oceanport Patch.
- Len